Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 0.146966 0.173750 0.205140 0.244935 0.294450 0.354571 4.339171e-01
2025-08-17 0.106797 0.136868 0.175810 0.230848 0.308139 0.415155 5.788054e-01
2025-08-24 0.085447 0.117427 0.162647 0.233230 0.344407 0.519723 8.322985e-01
2025-08-31 0.069652 0.101783 0.150931 0.235011 0.382839 0.648272 1.204539e+00
2025-09-07 0.058240 0.089984 0.142188 0.239624 0.430492 0.822040 1.799892e+00
2025-09-14 0.049325 0.080138 0.134282 0.243974 0.482708 1.043450 2.735654e+00
2025-09-21 0.041159 0.069772 0.122987 0.238854 0.516301 1.257007 3.961533e+00
2025-09-28 0.032259 0.056283 0.102736 0.209104 0.481882 1.282869 4.679996e+00
2025-10-05 0.028380 0.051415 0.098301 0.213196 0.537098 1.627183 7.434576e+00
2025-10-12 0.025663 0.048260 0.096687 0.223909 0.620358 2.172084 1.304143e+01
2025-10-19 0.023071 0.044841 0.093692 0.230452 0.698800 2.826696 2.286513e+01
2025-10-26 0.020821 0.041711 0.090626 0.236048 0.781978 3.670005 4.163046e+01
2025-11-02 0.018297 0.037619 0.084569 0.231760 0.832417 4.505056 7.320739e+01
2025-11-09 0.015882 0.033345 0.077073 0.220311 0.847617 5.206509 1.205298e+02
2025-11-16 0.014417 0.031058 0.074306 0.224008 0.942157 6.873998 2.744214e+02
2025-11-23 0.013122 0.028951 0.071542 0.226907 1.041669 9.086767 7.059242e+02
2025-11-30 0.012069 0.027261 0.069575 0.232340 1.168832 12.427739 2.382099e+03
2025-12-07 0.011134 0.025708 0.067645 0.237380 1.307596 17.128762 1.135593e+04
2025-12-14 0.010102 0.023718 0.063897 0.233107 1.381209 21.610645 6.148010e+04
2025-12-21 0.008690 0.020491 0.055540 0.204684 1.236436 20.309142 9.548598e+04
2025-12-28 0.008116 0.019500 0.054268 0.209070 1.376351 28.320264 4.831213e+06
2026-01-04 0.007714 0.018923 0.054253 0.219877 1.601597 43.824224 NaN
2026-01-11 0.007276 0.018170 0.053457 0.226572 1.809584 65.576061 NaN